From 9,500 ft in the Himalayas » musing

2008 – A recap

NITYIN — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 14:43:15 +0000

2008 was definitely one of the most eventful year. The year started with a rapid economic growth in the first half and simultaneously with global economic melt down led by US , Indian economy was also affected. Though the lay offs have not been massive as in the US, everyone is feeling the pinch. This was a year of stock market crash, investment bubble burst and the recession. In sports, Indian sports person excelled for the first time in the history. India received gold in an individual event. Indian boxers also received medals for the first time. By sending an unmanned mission to moon, India announced its arrival to the world. This was also the year of a big change in a country across seven seas with Barrack Obama being elected as President of the United States and Bush leaving the White House.. not before Bush got his farewell kiss from the Iraqi Muntadhar-Al-Zaiydi with all his ‘sole’. The year was full of terrorist attacks all over India and ending with the attack on Mumbai. As usual, we the ever forgiving and ever forgetting Indians simply shrugged off the memory of the attacks and were later busy in New Year Eve revelry. Pakistan on the other hand stationed it’s troops on Indian borders and asked for proof from the roof top!! The non state actors from across the border and our own state actors make a sad comedy!! The year also saw a new form of Hindu fundamentalism with an army colonel and a VHP activist being apprehended for terrorist activities.

On the state front, the stage too changed for the state actors. The green cap got replaced with the maroon one. BJP formed the govt. on it’s own strength. Nothing much changed for the common man. In Shimla, the water still came every third day. The roads are still in the same old condition. Earlier a visit to my village made me poorer with 1500. rupees, 500/ for the petrol and 1000/ for the repairs of the car. This figure went up by 30% in 2008. Thanks to the inflation and even worse driving condition on the dusty track called road! The year saw 150 people getting killed at Naina Devi temple where the govt. simply forgot to make arrangements for the large crowd. Another accident near Kufri killed almost all passengers in a bus where the driver had no license to drive the bus. But it was business as usual for the sarkar as people got killed. Meanwhile the Govt. babus were busy calculating their DAs and other allowances. In between, there was no time left for some actual work for which they happen to get paid. The Congress leaders remained busy fighting among themselves. No one expected them to oppose the govt. as they had their hands full. Major Mankotia announced retirement from politics after completing his ‘defeat Congress’ mission. HP University still remains a hot bed of communists.

On the personnel front, the year went fine. I completed one year in my new job. Elders in the family were still not able to make out how I work from home with just a laptop and a phone and seemed always busy. This blog also completed one year and have reached 7,300 hits. Add to this 4,400 hits to the original Wordpress blog, the combined hits to 9500 ft in the Himalyas were over 11,000. Two of the stories got featured on Blogbharti. Not bad for a rookie! Made new friends this year and got involved with Himvani. Thanks to Varun. Connected with old friends from Shimlahangout. This year did no major traveling except for a trip to Jallori Pass and to Dharamshala and Dalhousie. The apple crop was average but due to the trouble in Jammu during apple season got good returns. The orchard seem to be demanding more than what it is giving back. Add to this the massive labour problem with Nepalese not coming now, sustaining the orchard is going to be an uphill task. Kaveri, the daughter will be 2 years old on Lohri. It has been a joy to watch the kid grow up. Another member is expected to join the family by April.

Here is a wishing everyone a great New 2009. May the New Year bring peace and happiness to you and your family!

Understanding the economic bubble and bubble burst

NITYIN — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 09:08:32 +0000

Real economics and a lesson on the growth bubble. You will find the answer to how the US economy melted. If you could read patiently and understand, its a great knowledge!

Once there was a little island country. The land of this country was the tiny island itself. The total money in circulation was 2 dollars as there were only two pieces of 1 dollar coins circulating around.

1) There were 3 citizens living on this island country. A owned the land. B and C each owned 1 dollar.

2) B decided to purchase the land from A for 1 dollar. So,now A and C own 1 dollar each while B owned a piece of land that is worth 1 dollar.
* The net asset of the country now = 3 dollars.

3) Now C thought that since there is only one piece of land in the country, and land is non producible asset, its value must definitely go up. So, he borrowed 1 dollar from A, and together with his own 1 dollar, he bought the land from B for 2 dollars.
* A has a loan to C of 1 dollar, so his net asset is 1 dollar.
* B sold his land and got 2 dollars, so his net asset is 2 dollars.
* C owned the piece of land worth 2 dollars but with his 1 dollar debt to A, his net residual asset is 1 dollar.
* Thus, the net asset of the country = 4 dollars.

4) A saw that the land he once owned has risen in value. He regretted having sold it. Luckily, he has a 1 dollar loan to C. He then borrowed 2 dollars from B and acquired the land back from C for 3 dollars. The payment is by 2 dollars cash (which he borrowed) and cancellation of the 1 dollar loan to C. As a result, A now owned a piece of land that is worth 3 dollars. But since he owed B 2 dollars, his net asset is 1 dollar.
* B loaned 2 dollars to A. So his net asset is 2 dollars.
* C now has the 2 coins. His net asset is also 2 dollars.
* The net asset of the country = 5 dollars. A bubble is building up.

5) B saw that the value of land kept rising. He also wanted to own the land. So he bought the land from A for 4 dollars. The payment is by borrowing 2 dollars from C, and cancellation of his 2 dollars loan to A.
* As a result, A has got his debt cleared and he got the 2 coins. His net asset is 2 dollars.
* B owned a piece of land that is worth 4 dollars, but since he has a debt of 2 dollars with C, his net Asset is 2 dollars.
* C loaned 2 dollars to B, so his net asset is 2 dollars.
* The net asset of the country = 6 dollars; even though,the country has only one piece of land and 2 Dollars in circulation.

6) Everybody has made money and everybody felt happy and prosperous.

7) One day an evil wind blew, and an evil thought came to C’s mind. “Hey, what if the land price stop going up, how could B repay my loan. There is only 2 dollars in
circulation, and, I think after all the land that B owns is worth at most only 1 dollar, and no more.”

A also thought the same way.

9) Nobody wanted to buy land anymore.
* So, in the end, A owns the 2 dollar coins, his net asset is 2 dollars.
* B owed C 2 dollars and the land he owned which he thought worth 4 dollars is now 1 dollar. So his net asset is only 1 dollar.
* C has a loan of 2 dollars to B. But it is a bad debt.Although his net asset is still 2 dollars, his Heart is palpitating.
* The net asset of the country = 3 dollars again.

10) So, who has stolen the 3 dollars from the country ? Of course, before the bubble burst B thought his land was worth 4 dollars. Actually, right before the collapse, the net asset of the country was 6 dollars on paper. B’s net asset is still 2 dollars, his heart is palpitating.

11) B had no choice but to declare bankruptcy. C as to relinquish his 2 dollars bad debt to B, but in return he acquired the land which is worth 1 dollar now.
* A owns the 2 coins, his net asset is 2 dollars.
* B is bankrupt, his net asset is 0 dollar. ( he lost everything )
* C got no choice but end up with a land worth only 1 dollar
* The net asset of the country = 3 dollars.

End of the story; But points worth noting.

1.There is however a redistribution of wealth.A is the winner, B is the loser, C is lucky that he is spared.
2.When the bubble burst, the fellow with cash is the winner. The fellows having the land or extending loan to others are the losers. The asset could shrink or in worst
case, they go bankrupt.
3.If there is another citizen D either holding a dollar
or another piece of land but refrains from taking part in the game, he will neither win nor lose. But he will see the value of his money or land go up and down like a see saw.
4.If you are smart and know that you are living in a growing bubble, it is worthwhile to borrow money (like A ) and take part in the game. But you must know when you should change everything back to cash.
5.As in the case of land, the above phenomenon applies to stocks as well.

Source: Internet

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Diplomatic games in the sub-continent

NITYIN — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 08:55:46 +0000

Recent ban on Jamaat-ud-Dawa by the UN Security Council has been a very interesting development with China supporting the ban, and in fact supporting India’s position. In the past, China has vetoed earlier attempts to ban the Jamaat and always sided with Pakistan. Is China, now with it’s economical might openly taking the role of regional policeman? Is China looking for a more active role in South Asia along with the United States?

Had China vetoed this move once again it would have turned Pakistan as a battle field against China; somewhat similar battle ground as West enjoyed against Russia in Afghanistan. China has once again bailed out Pakistan and now controls more swaying power over Pakistani establishment. Pakistan has a strategic geographical location advantage as it is the corridor for the West to access Central Asia. However, now it can’t get done without prior Chinese approval. So it is going to be a tit for tat situation between China and USA. If China feels it’s supplies any where in the world are being pressurized by the West, they can always play the Pakistan card.

China’s other interest in Pakistan is mainly from the point of view of containing India’s influence in the Indian Ocean. China has established bases near Andaman & Nicobar Island and is in the process of creating one of the biggest ports for Pakistan at Gwadar in Baluchistan. (This is a deep sea port at the entrance of Persian Gulf on the Arabian Sea) China plans to connect this port with Karachi through a highway and then to the Karakorum highway thus having a direct access to the Arabian Sea. Pakistan, now economically crippled, welcomes all Chinese investments and China no longer needs to cajole Pakistan. Chinese influence has been growing in Africa and in no time will it establish ports in Africa making it a potent naval force in Asia and Africa, from South China sea across the Indian Ocean to the Arabian sea.

India is a large country however is strategically less significant. India will have to strive for good trade relations with China but will continue to counter China in strategic spheres. In the coming years, India will have to walk a tight rope in balancing the relations with the USA and China. India could not have won the UNSC ban on Jamaat had the US or China vetoed it.

Pakistan, by its nature, will go at any lengths not to be seen as geo-strategically useless. Because of its geographical location, Pakistan will continue to be a “rent” state, someone who charges a heavy price - cash, aid, weapons etc - for its location in the sub-continent. Pakistan would be happy being a pawn of the USA or China.

It took both India and Pakistan 60 years to reach where they are. Despite all the challenges related to multiple race, religion and ethnicity, India has reached a position that actually brings some amount of respect from people all across the world. On the other side, Pakistani leadership took all these 60 years to turn their country into a slave of the powerful, nothing more! Instead of investing time and effort to create a functional civil society nation Pakistan ended up creating human bombs. Patience within India and the Western countries is ending slowly given it’s open track record of aiding and abetting terrorism in entire South Asia and the world. Could there be covert re-thinking happening, probably redrawing boundaries of our neighbor nation? China would however like to see India and Pakistan at peace to avoid excessive US influence in the region and especially in India.

Vodafone launched in Himachal

NITYIN — Sun, 14 Dec 2008 17:42:27 +0000

Vodafone rolled out it’s cellular service today (Monday, Dec 15) in Himachal. The company started operations in Shimla and Baddi in the first phase which will be gradually started all over the state. Vodafone Welcome SIM pack will cost Rs. 249/ with a life time validatity, talk time of Rs. 10/ and 340 SMS local & national. The welcome pack also includes a wrist watch for the new customers.

The company is offering a call rate of 20 paise per minute for Vodafone to Vodafone localcalls, 50 paise per minute for Vodafone to other local mobiles and 60 paise per minute for Vodafone to local land line calls. This will be available on a power top up of Rs. 39/ per month for pre paid customers in the state. Vodafone numbers will be available in 97360xxxxx series. More details will be available at the launch today at Shimla.

Till now the market leader Airtel has not been affected with the arrival of other companies in the state. Idea, Aircel and Reliance have massive distribution and technical problems and have not been able to reach the customers in proper fashion, one reason why Airtel has been acting cocky being a market leader for so long. BSNL, on the other hand has grown from strength to strength and it’s latest student pack has been a big hit . BSNL offers one of the best coverage in the entire state including the tribal districts.

Looking forward for a price war among mobile companies in Himachal. I am with Airtel for the past 7 years with 6 connections in the family and have not received a single thank you card/ gift / movie vouchers ever. I will be the first to switch over to Vodafone wagon.

Vodafone Himachal site is now live. Click here for more details.

Lucky to have survived ; Living in good shape

NITYIN — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 13:32:43 +0000

Below is a mail from Rahul Welde who was caught amidst at the The Taj on the fateful day and escaped miraculously. He has managed to put down his thoughts so succinctly which only highlights the importance of living, caring and sharing.

Pray to the Almighty everyday for He only knows the purpose of your life. And live the life trying to understand that purpose…..rest is all incidental….

From: Welde, Rahul
Sent: Wednesday, December 03, 2008 1:03 PM
To: Welde, Rahul
Subject: Lucky to have survived ; Living in good shape

My heartfelt thanks to you for your support and wishes during the horrific experience. I haven’t yet had a chance to connect with everyone and hence this bulk mail - this is so not my way of doing it. My apologies for that.

I want you to know that this is NOT a mindless forward but a straight message from someone you’ve known.
I wont go much into details of what happened that night. To cut the long story short - I was holed up in my room at the Taj hotel the fateful night of the terrorist attack. Managed to escape by the skin of my teeth at around 4 am - in sheer denial of allowing fire and smoke to swallow me. By gods grace I managed to make the run down 6 floors and some few meters without the devil in my way.

You can imagine how happy I am to be here typing this away. ( For anyone who wants to know the gore - let me know. I have the full story and transcripts of my SMSs recorded for posterity - to keep my anger burning and reminding me of my purpose)

I thought I’d leave a few messages which might be of help to all good people.
In the modern day world, risks are a plenty. Terrorists, tsunamis, earthquakes - the list can go on. None of these check on your profile, company, religion, class or seniority when they hit. They just hit. And we know now it can happen anywhere. Here are a few things we could all do to keep it safer and better.

Firstly, value your family and friends. Two things I strongly recommend you check on

1. Make sure you are covered well by insurance. Even if you are well off - leave them better off if the unfortunate were to happen.

2. Let them know details on things like bank accounts, investments etc. Keep a folio with your spouse and close family.

3. Use every waking moment to cherish what you have - family, friends, nature. Stay smiling, laughing and caring.

Admittedly these aren’t things I thought about deeply till now. I shudder at the thought of what if.
Lets move from the philosophical to the more practical.

There are a few lessons that I want to share

1. When in a hotel or a new place - please NOTE where the FIRE EXIT is. The fire exit route saved my life. I had no clue of where it was and why I ran where I did. Why I turned left or right. Providential escape for me - nothing more. I’ve stayed in hotels for years and don’t remember ever paying attention to this. Its a few seconds invested that can save you from big trouble.

2. Insist on taking a room in the outer periphery - where the fire brigade can reach you. My room was on the inside and I tell you what - there was no chance the fire brigade would ever reach me. They would have always been a few yards but several hours away. Ever thought of this detail.

3. A key item on your survival kit is your cell phone. I give it to Apple for developing the I phone - a real smart gadget. Whatever your phone - a critical checkpoint is battery life. Often we wait for battery to go down before charging. Don’t ! Keep it full charge all the time. All the SMSs saved my senses and maybe even my life.

4. I learnt for the first time that when running through fire and/or smoke - run bending down and wrap a wet blanket around. I did that thanks to a friend who advised me. Its a different story I chucked the blanket thinking that the cops would gun me down mistaking me for a terrorist. Good tip nevertheless.

5. Don’t miss the aspect of staying fit - in running shape. Can help you and maybe even you can help someone.

Last few days I have heard/read a lot about peace marches and candles and politician bashing and police bashing and whatever else. I am sure a lot of energy will go in all that. Having been there I can only say that every soul - the cop, the fireman, the medico and even the common man on the street was doing the best he could. I dont blame anyone. I am sure good will prevail over evil in the long term. The short term blips we cannot avoid.

I have a lot to say and yet not much more. God is the greatest and leads to the ultimate destiny. I am thankful for all that has been and all that there is now.
Happy to be writing to you and wish you and the family best for times ahead.

Am sure we will be in touch. Till then.
Regards
Rahul

ps : feel free to forward this to anyone you think might find the message useful to know.

Technorati Tags: mumbai,terror,attack,survivor,India

Mumbai – The collateral damage

Private banks score poorly in Himachal

NITYIN — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 19:13:32 +0000

Recent economic meltdown have sprung a strange phenomenon in Himachal Pradesh. It is the public sector banks which score in terms of services in the state. Private banks in Himachal have to learn a lot from their sarkari counterparts. Initially the private banks scored over with their technological supremacy but PSU banks have caught up and are now offering better services than the private ones. HDFC bank on the Mall has one of the worst services I have come across. The bank staff is untrained especially the people manning the counters. They have no knowledge about the work they seem to be doing. My blood pressure reaches a new high every time I have to deal with this branch. Upon entering the bank is a girl making a sales pitch without introducing herself whether she is an employee of the bank and starts her sales talk for an insurance or a mutual fund. Just like the way you have agents coaxing you in front of the GPO. This is a big turn-off. I remember once I visited this branch, there were no pay-in slips!! One had to fill up the photocopied slips twice. Surely not the best way a private bank should function. Speaks poorly on the management of this branch. The Mall branch needs to pull up its socks and at least give orientation to the staff properly.

No problems with ICICI though but yes the hum hain na factor too is missing. Speaking of melt down, I am still not convinced about the “all is well with the bank” chorus being dished out by the FM and lately by King Khan. The bank seems to be concealing more than it has revealed. ICICI bank’s reputation for aggression is well known. Since the meltdown started, Union Bank and IDBI bank (both PSU) started overnight a big campaign to woo customers. Did the banks knew about the storm in advance?

Among PSU banks, the bank which still seems to live in the golden era of PSU dadagiri is the Central Bank at the Lift. Nothing has changed in this branch in the past 17 years (post liberalization) The staff still treats its customer as jerks and no matter whatever your urgency is, the staff takes it’s damn sweet time to finish your mundane chore.

SBI and PNB have amazingly improved their services and with their vast reach in rural Himachal, are a great boon for fellow Himachalis. In my village, SBI and PNB are connected to the national servers through broadband and have a back up through V-Sat. Pretty impressive I must say!! One bank which has missed the technological revolution is the state co-operative bank. They also have a good base in rural Himachal but absence of online banking services will ultimately hamper its growth.

Private Banks need to re-invent themselves as the technology factor has faded away. Surprisingly, NOW they need to tell their employees to smile first!!!

Technorati Tags: private banks,shimla,himachal pradesh,state bank of india,punjab national bank,sbi,pnb,hdfc bank,central bank,poor service

Mumbai – The collateral damage

NITYIN — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 19:48:20 +0000

As I write, the Mumbai carnage seems to be ending. It was horrific to see Bombay turn into Beirut. A city and a nation taken hostage for 60 hours. Can a group of 25 people finish the entire city? How many will be required to finish off a nation of 1 billion? 500 or may be 1000. As usual people responsible for our safety were found napping. Indian intelligence agencies are nothing but a joke. After any terror attack, they simply wash off their hands and sit and wait for the next incident to happen. Were the terrorists simply testing the waters to make them believe that they can do the same operation anywhere else in the world? Meanwhile the gutless leaders of these groups must be rejoicing in their dark cold caves, soaking up all the attention that they so desperately seek just so they can convince themselves that that have some productive purpose in life.

The politician class stands apart in this whole affair. Two of India’s top leaders could not make it to visit the city together. Modi was already announcing crores when the fighting was still going on. Our Home Minister was probably busy checking his wardrobe for the morning after! Jokers like Raj Thackeray are not worth mentioning even. The political drama will happen from tomorrow onwards. It is going to be a bloody circus. “Strict measures…New laws…Compensations… Red alert.” Only words I can think for the politicians is, They are, to me, like the mess a dog makes on the sidewalk.

Does someone realize how vulnerable our country has become. Anyone from across the border can attack the parliament, the red fort, bomb our cities with impunity. The Jehadis across the border have specialized on terror trips to India. The biggest irony, chief of ISI is coming to India to ‘assist’ in investigation. Why only him? Also invite Hafiz Saed and Masood Azhar and hear from the horse’s mouth. Why is the govt behaving like cowherds? Does the PM realizes we have the biggest army in the region.

In the US, 9/11 remains a one-off. Here, each year every second month there are various repetitions of the terror drama, changing venues, changing faces, changing means but all succeeding in bleeding the nation and destroying numerous innocent lives every time. Clichés like the Mumbai or Indian spirit are just for kidding. We still will move on. Do we have any other choice? Now we know there exists someone waiting to blow or bleed us apart!

Technorati Tags: mumbai,terror,attack,taj mahal,oberoi,trident,isi,politician

New Look!

NITYIN — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 20:48:26 +0000

It is a season of new looks so given a new look to the blog too. In fact it was long overdue. The older one stayed for almost an year. I had messed up with the sidebars and they were never aligned. The new theme looks a little organized. Being not a programmer myself, it takes a bit of hit and trial to get things working on the site. Still tweaking the php language. Once, I am finished with the theme, will work on the overall look of the site. That means many sleepless nights ahead.

Please do pass on the feedback and broken links!

Vanishing cultures of Himachal

Quota numbers

NITYIN — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 19:38:43 +0000

Couldn’t stop myself from posting this one:

“The court of the Chief Justice of India virtually turned into a mathematics classroom earlier this week. This happened when a Constitution Bench was hearing a petition on the OBC quota in higher educational institutions. All the five judges, lawyers and others present in the packed court were seen doing their back-of-the-envelop calculations to arrive at the number of seats that are supposed to go to students belonging to the SC/ST, OBC and the general category.

The judges were exchanging their calculations. Senior advocate K.K. Venugopal, counsel for the petitioner, had a tough time explaining the percentages to the judges, particularly Justices R.V. Raveendran and Arijit Pasayat. Apparently, there was an effort to find a way out for the provision of 27 per cent reservation for the OBC without affecting the already available percentages for the SC/ST (22.5) and the general category (77.5). In this case, the total percentage would come to 127, while anything above 100 per cent is a mathematical improbability.”

Source

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Reliance NetConnect and DisConnect in Himachal Pradesh

NITYIN — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 21:02:40 +0000

I had bought a Reliance Net Connect ZTE USB modem keeping in mind my traveling schedule and and was promised four times faster speed than the usual dial up connection. It is a wireless (mobile) internet service and can be used anywhere Reliance CDMA service is available. The speed was fine in Shimla for a few days, where I have a BSNL broadband at home. A couple of weeks later I tried this service at my village in Kotgarh and was extremely disappointed with the speed. The connectivity was either dead slow or almost dead!

My woes started with a bleak signal. Just 2 bars on the signal tab. I knew there were couple of Reliance towers, just across the hills. Called up a Reliance guy in Rampur and next day the signal strength reached to 4 and occasionaly touching 5 bars. This accomplished tried my hand on surfing but it was again dead slow. I could somehow surf till 10 pm and at dot 10, the net simply stopped as if someone had switched off the button. Called the same guy again, and explained my problem. Bingo.. next day there was trace of internet after 10 pm. This aroused my suspicion that there was something fishy with overall service of Reliance in rural areas!!

I was given a number of one Mr. Prashant (9318855055) who happens to be Reliance tech guru based in Shimla. He listened to me patiently the first time, took down my address and promised to send one of his techies to look into my problem. Nothing happened for the next 10 days. Next time I called him up, he was curt and told me to connect with some other user in the area and check if he too had the same problem! Now excuse me, but is this my fucking job to find another sucker in the area? I happen to be the only sucker facing the Reliance (dis)service in the entire area! Wise people stay away from Reliance!! I sent an email to the customer service mentioned on their website. One fine day got a call from a Reliance number putting me on hold for 5 minutes and kept on playing the Reliance signature tune and then disconnected. Got a mail next day from customer care saying they tried contacting me but were unable to do so and the matter ended up there! The service is pathetic no doubt and after sales and customer services even worse with Reliance.

I tried doing tracers for the websites. Most of the time I get Request Timed Out error after 4 hops. I tried pinging sites, I got the same error. Reliance tried to put blame on weak signals but at times the signal was at 4 or 5 bars, still the sites wouldn’t open. I have been cheated by the company and am left with a useless gizmo worth 3000 rupees. I am skeptical about using it while traveling as I doubt it will work anywhere outside Shimla. All my money has been swindled by Reliance Communications.

Words of wisdom from 9,500 ft in the Himalayas - Stay away from Reliance in Himachal. Don’t get fooled by the tall claims being dished out by the company. This is a useless company with even more useless services. Also stay away from any form of wireless internet gizmos be it GSM or CDMA. Best use the good old BSNL landlines.

Reliance NetConnect has No Reliance and is actually a DisConnect.

PS - I will post my experiences using the Net (dis) Connect at other places in a fortnight’s time before throwing it in the trash bin!.